ACUS48 KWNS 110915
SWOD48
SPC AC 110915
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST MON NOV 11 2013
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
U.S. DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WORK WEEK...IT APPEARS
UNLIKELY THAT GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION WILL SUPPORT
SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. EVEN
THEN...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT MOISTENING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MODEST. WITH STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES ALSO UNLIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.
THIS BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCLEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK /DAY 8 AND
BEYOND/...AS THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...AND THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
DATA...BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN
AT LEAST A COUPLE OF BELTS OF WESTERLIES CONTINUING TO IMPACT NORTH
AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL-TYPE SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT STILL APPEARS LOW AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/11/2013
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