MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2003

ACUS11 KWNS 011235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011234
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-011400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 AM CDT FRI NOV 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA/NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559...

VALID 011234Z - 011400Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 559
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...FORCED LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE ERN PA VICINITY WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT NEW WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED E OF WW 559.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A PERSISTENT/FORCED LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS THE ERN NY/ERN PA/ERN MD/NRN VA
VICINITY...THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FEATURING MINIMAL LOW-TOPPED CAPE
BUT VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH THE CONVECTION...BUT LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE
HIGH-MOMENTUM FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1 KM.

WHILE ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE...CONVECTION HAS
SHOWN AN OVERALL/GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND -- WITH THE STRONGEST
PORTION OF THE LINE PER RADAR REFLECTIVITY NOW OVER THE ERN PA
VICINITY. EXPECT THE OVERALL WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE...WITH
ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE NOT EXPECTED ATTM.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 41067407 40047449 39647550 39637631 41037506 41217435
41067407

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