MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2008

ACUS11 KWNS 170530
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170529
ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL AR...S-CNTRL AND SERN MO...FAR SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170529Z - 170630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM NWRN AR INTO SRN IL IS SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST TSTMS ARE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING
WITHIN A SW-NE CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM NWRN AR INTO S-CNTRL MO AND
SRN IL...DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME.
WEAK/MARGINAL ROTATION AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGEST QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS
NWRN AR AS OF 05Z.

SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS
THIS AREA GIVEN WEAK FOCUS FOR STORM SUSTENANCE...AS PRIMARY FORCING
FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN AMPLIFYING WAVE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
REMAINS FOCUSED N OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SFC OBS INDICATE HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S F DEWPOINTS/
CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD ACROSS THE REGION...SUFFICIENT FOR
MAINTAINING PARCELS ROOTED NEAR THE SFC. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
LOW-LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR /E.G. 35-45 KT OF 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR PER LZK
AND PAH VWP/...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO...MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 36808946 35919058 35449164 35269282 35289329 35499348
36059312 36859197 37489064 37569033 37908956 37918884
37628849 37038924 36808946

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