MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2009

ACUS11 KWNS 170807
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170806
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-170930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN AR...SERN MO...SRN
IL...SWRN IND...FAR WRN KY AND NWRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 170806Z - 170930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN AR
THROUGH SERN MO AND SRN IL...WITH ACTIVITY ALSO AFFECTING SWRN
IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
FURTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN INTENSITY...WITH A WW BEING
CONSIDERED FOR THIS REGION.

DISCUSSION...EARLY OVERNIGHT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED STORMS OVER
N-CENTRAL AR INTO SERN MO WITH SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES.
GPS/SATELLITE DATA SHOWED A CONTINUED NWD RETURN OF MOISTURE /PW
1-1.5 INCH/ ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MID SOUTH. RADAR IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWED STACCATO APPEARANCE OF SHOWERS IN NW-SE ORIENTED BANDS
OVER CENTRAL-NERN AR INTO SERN MO WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A CAP OVER
THIS REGION.

AREA WSR-88D VADS IMPLIED A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXTENDING FROM ERN AR/WRN MS NEWD TO SRN IL/WRN KY...WHERE MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM N TX INTO SWRN AR...WITH A RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER SWRN-S CENTRAL AR EVIDENT
OF ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET REACHING SWRN AR. AS THIS
EXIT REGION ADVANCES NEWD ACROSS THE SW-NE ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...DEEP LAYER ASCENT SHOULD STRENGTHEN...WEAKENING
THE CAP...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS
INDICATED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STORM ROTATION...GIVEN THE PERIODIC
AFOREMENTIONED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
PER LZK AND PAH VWP WITH LARGE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FAVOR A TORNADO
THREAT IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 11/17/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON 35079219 35689208 37129071 38308922 38968711 38598674
37748684 36028883 34999037 34499100 34649241 35079219

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