MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2033

ACUS11 KWNS 212259
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212259
TXZ000-220030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 212259Z - 220030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE
HAIL/PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
TX...INCLUDING THE DFW METRO VICINITY AND I-35 CORRIDOR AND
NEAR/NORTH OF I-20.

DISCUSSION...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX...ABOUT 40-50 MILES AHEAD OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING STRONG COLD FRONT. AS OF 2230Z...THIS
INCLUDES A SUPERCELL NEAR PALO PINTO TX. THESE SEMI-DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST AND WEAKLY
CONFLUENT ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WHERE MIDDLE 70S F
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. REGIONAL
PROFILERS/WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLE INCREASINGLY STRONG WESTERLIES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE /ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WEAKNESS/...WITH 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT LEAST SUPPORTIVE OF
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS/SUSTAINED MULTICELLS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. THAT SAID...THE STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL UNDERCUT THESE STORMS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...THUS LIKELY
LIMITING THE OVERALL DURATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK. BUT IN
THE MEAN TIME...ISOLATED/MARGINAL INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL...AND
PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS
DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 11/21/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 32529854 32859890 33469820 33779679 33559577 32759587
32529854

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