MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2046

ACUS11 KWNS 262315
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262315
NYZ000-PAZ000-270315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN PA...WRN NY

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 262315Z - 270315Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
NWRN PA BY 00Z...AND THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN NY THROUGH 06Z.

DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SABINE RIVER VALLEY ARE IN THE PROCESS OF PHASING THIS EVENING. WARM
CONVEYOR BELT IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE E COAST AHEAD OF THESE UPPER
WAVES...WHICH IS AIDING IN THE NWD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT EXPANSION OF A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD INTO THE NERN
CONUS. WARM AIR WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AOA FREEZING WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS CNTRL PA/NY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR MAINLY RAIN.
FARTHER W...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING OVER NWRN PA INTO WRN
NY...WHICH WILL FAVOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD...SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A 70
KT LOW-LEVEL SLY JET TO SHIFT NWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...WHICH WILL FOCUS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA AND FRONTOGENESIS
OVER PA AND NY. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS A
RESULT...WITH SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR OVER NWRN PA BY
00Z...AND WRN NY BETWEEN 00-06Z.

..GARNER.. 11/26/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON 41317885 40738039 41608039 43567771 44397609 43417612
42447741 41317885

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