MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2048

ACUS11 KWNS 270149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270148
FLZ000-270245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST TUE NOV 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TO WRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 576...

VALID 270148Z - 270245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 576 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WW 576 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE
WEATHER HAS YET BEEN REPORTED WITHIN THE WW...A MARGINAL RISK FOR
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BE PRESENT
BEYOND WW EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE LARGELY AMALGAMATED
INTO A BROADER STRATIFORM RAIN BAND ACROSS NRN FL TO JUST N OF TAMPA
BAY. STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS REMAINED IN A LINEAR MODE OVER THE
NERN GULF ROUGHLY 50-100 MILES WEST OF THE W-CNTRL FL COAST AND
FARTHER S OFF THE SRN FL COAST. THESE CONVECTIVE LINES MAY
EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH A DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT AND EVIDENCE OF VEER-BACK-VEER
WERE NOTED IN REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS AND RECENT VWP DATA. AS SUCH...THE
GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS MAY EXIST FROM
N-CNTRL FL TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD BE
MARGINAL.

..GRAMS.. 11/27/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 29798238 29848188 29588160 28678170 28028185 27618182
26988158 26318117 25598107 25098107 24528158 24538175
26988272 28018289 29118279 29538269 29798238

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