DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1

ACUS01 KWNS 060616
SWODY1
SPC AC 060613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1213 AM CST FRI DEC 06 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS WIND PROBABILITY LINE

...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE SHALLOW LEADING
EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS APPEARS LIKELY TO ADVANCE OFF NORTHERN AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS EARLY TODAY. BUT IT MAY STALL ALONG THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A SLOW ACCELERATION OF THE
FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/CARIBBEAN/AND BAHAMAS INTO THE NEARBY WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AND MAY MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ACROSS GULF AND
SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AS A STRONG UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST...INTO LINGERING LARGER SCALE
WESTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGHING...THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST INTO WESTERN CAROLINAS...
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH PERHAPS
ANOTHER SURGE OF RICHER MOISTURE. MUCH OF THIS MAY OCCUR ABOVE/TO
THE COOL SIDE OF THE SHALLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE
FRONT...BUT SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROBABLY WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN AT LEAST A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODEST CAPE...AND AN
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WARM SECTOR SHEAR...BOTH DEEP
LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL...MAY EVEN BE A BIT STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.

HOWEVER...WITH APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING WELL TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY IS UNCLEAR...AND
LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK...WITH CONSIDERABLE LINGERING MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL TEND TO QUICKLY BE UNDERCUT BY IT...SO ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS CONTINGENT ON STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF
IT. MUCH AS THE CASE YESTERDAY...PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SEEM
LOW...BUT PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR/ROGERS.. 12/06/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.