DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281951
SWODY1
SPC AC 281949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO THE ONGOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY MINOR
TWEAKS TO THE WRN FRINGE OF THE CURRENT THUNDER AREA BEING MADE THIS
FORECAST. A BAND OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ATTM OVER THE NRN GULF --
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER -- AND IS MOVING SLOWLY NEWD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA. AS THIS CONVECTION SPREADS INLAND LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR
BRIEF TORNADO WILL LIKEWISE EXIST...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS CONVECTION SHIFTS GRADUALLY EWD/NEWD.

..GOSS.. 12/28/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013/

...FL/GA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBS SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE ABOUT 200MI SSW OF MOB. THIS LOW IS
FORECAST BY A CONSENSUS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS TO MOVE ASHORE THIS
EVENING OVER THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY AND STABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
ONLY IN THE 40S. HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE
60S. THIS WILL YIELD SOME CONCERN FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
PARCELS.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL RESULT IN A FEW ROTATING STORMS. AS THE NEAR SURFACE
AIR MASS SLOWLY DESTABILIZES...A LOW POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP FOR
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF TORNADOES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FL
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA. THIS THREAT WILL PRIMARILY EXIST AFTER
ABOUT 22Z.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.

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