DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120547
SWODY1
SPC AC 120545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST WED DEC 11 2013

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEPART THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
REGION AS A SPEED MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. A LOW-AMPLITUDE/QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS
IN ITS WAKE. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A LOWER-LATITUDE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE EVOLVING INTO AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH. A RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY EXITING
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE PAC
NW...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE REINFORCED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NATION...MAINTAINING A COLD/STABLE AIR MASS E OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED WELL S INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH MOISTURE RETURN LIKELY OCCURRING BEYOND
THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.

...CNTRL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM...
AN UPPER LOW TRANSLATING NEWD WILL REACH THE LOWER CO VALLEY BY 00Z.
TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PEAK COINCIDENT WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR PRECEDING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN AZ AND SWRN NM. SLIGHT LOW-MID LAYER MOISTENING WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING WITH PW VALUES MOSTLY RANGING FROM 0.6-0.8
INCH...BUT BUOYANCY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED OWING TO COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES...YIELDING MUCAPE VALUES OF 250 J/KG OR LESS.
THUS...TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED...WITH NEGLIGIBLE SVR
POTENTIAL EXPECTED.

...LEE OF LOWER GREAT LAKES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS APPEAR LIKELY TO PERSIST/RE-DEVELOP IN THE
LEE OF LE/LO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTINUE TO YIELD MARGINAL BUOYANCY...BUT THE COLD/SUB-FREEZING
CHARACTER OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE UNLIKELIHOOD OF MIXED PHASE
PROCESSES WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION BEYOND AN
ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO.

...SOUTH FL...
A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING ALONG A SWD
SHIFTING WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER SOUTH FL. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL CAPE
VALUES /I.E. 100-200 J/KG/ WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A RELATIVELY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES.

..ROGERS/MOSIER.. 12/12/2013

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