DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020536
SWODY1
SPC AC 020534

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST SUN DEC 01 2013

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE PRESENTLY TRACKING SSEWD ALONG THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ENTER THE NW
CONUS MON MORNING AND SHIFT ESEWD WHILE REACHING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
BY LATE MON NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE CYCLONE WILL
EXTEND WWD TO THE E-PACIFIC WATERS WHILE MOVING SWD...AS A STRONG
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS AND SEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. A BAND OF STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE SWD
ACROSS THE WRN STATES WHILE OVERSPREADING PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS BY LATE MON NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A DOWNSTREAM...
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST.

...COASTAL ORE AND COASTAL SRN WA EWD TO THE CNTRL AND WRN
DAKOTAS...
DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT...CYCLONE...AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. VERY SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT
ACROSS THIS BROAD CORRIDOR /1/ INVOF THE FRONT WHERE PRE-FRONTAL
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STEEP...AND /2/ BEHIND THE
FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE/TROUGH. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A
DEARTH OF BUOYANCY THAT SHOULD NOT SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR GENERAL-THUNDER DELINEATION.

...OUTER BANKS OF NC...
SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OFF THE SERN CONUS COAST IN RESPONSE TO
THE INTERACTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WITH A
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE LYING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG THIS ZONE...THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTING
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP BUOYANCY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE.

...CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE TN VALLEY...
WEAK SLY SFC WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE AREAS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SERN-CONUS IMPULSE...THE
PAUCITY OF ASCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 12/02/2013

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