DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 231245
SWODY1
SPC AC 231243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 AM CST MON DEC 23 2013

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GRT LKS/OH VLY
THIS PERIOD AS TWO DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS
TEMPORARILY PHASE WITH STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING SE ACROSS MN. THIS
PHASING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DOMINANT WRN/CNTRL ATLANTIC
RIDGE...WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN DEEP SWLY FLOW ALONG THE E CST
TODAY...BEFORE THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACCELERATES E ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES ON TUE.

AMPLIFICATION OF UPR SYSTEM SHOULD TIGHTEN EXISTING SW-NE FRONTAL
ZONE NOW OVER THE EAST. AS A RESULT...EXPECT EWD MOTION OF SFC COLD
FRONT NOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS TO INCREASE AND...BY LATE
TODAY...OVERTAKE MORE SLOWLY-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY
THAT ATTM EXTENDS SWWD FROM NEAR RIC TO NEAR TLH.

...ERN NC/FAR SE VA THIS AFTN...
E OF THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY...COMBINATION OF SEASONABLY MOIST
LOW-LVL INFLOW /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 60S F WITH PW AROUND
1.75 INCHES/ AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD YIELD WEAK
DESTABILIZATION. POCKETS OF SBCAPE COULD REACH 250 J/KG BY EARLY
AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NC AND FAR SE VA. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION OF EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG LEADING EDGE OF
RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY...AND/OR INTENSIFICATION OF SHOWERS ALONG
LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS TO ITS EAST.

RELATIVELY STRONGLY-FOCUSED LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE WITH DEEP SWLY SHEAR
LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE AXES OF CONVERGENCE SHOULD ORGANIZE THE
CONVECTION INTO ONE OR TWO BROKEN LINES. COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
OF DEEP SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION /WITH 700 MB SPEEDS IN WARM SECTOR
AOA 50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A LOW-AMPLITUDE LEWP OR A SMALL BOW
OR TWO WITH BRIEFLY STRONG WINDS. THE ABSENCE OF STRONG/DEEP FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND WEAK MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT
OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL/DURATION.

..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 12/23/2013

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