DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 280557
SWODY1
SPC AC 280554

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1154 PM CST FRI DEC 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE CURRENT SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION AS A
MULTI-STREAM TROUGH INTENSIFIES FROM CNTRL CANADA AND THE N-CNTRL
CONUS TO OFF BAJA. THIS WILL RESULT THE TRANSITION OF THE SRN PLAINS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO AN OPEN WAVE WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
DE-AMPLIFY WHILE ACCELERATING ENEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING.

AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER...ALONG A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD INTO THE
SHELF WATERS OF THE N-CNTRL/NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY UNDERGO SLIGHT DEEPENING
WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY BY 29/12Z. BY
THIS TIME...THE WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOW NEWD THROUGH
CNTRL SC INTO E-CNTRL OR NERN NC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
ADVANCES EWD THROUGH THE FL PNHDL...SERN AL...AND W-CNTRL/SWRN
GA.

...FL PNHDL/NRN FL INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...

THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE SRN-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE
LLJ FORMATION OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE INCREASING IN BREADTH AND INTENSITY TONIGHT OVER THE
SERN STATES. THIS WILL HASTEN THE POLEWARD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO --AND EVENTUALLY THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-- WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITHIN THE INLAND-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING MLCAPE VALUES TO GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500-750 J/KG.

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON OFF THE
MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER INVOF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ADVANCING
WARM FRONT. THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL ALLOW THESE
STORMS TO MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE FL
PNHDL INTO N-CNTRL FL/FAR SRN GA WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTENING COULD SUPPORT SURFACE-BASED STORMS. HERE...FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT CLOCKWISE-CURVED STRUCTURE WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED ROTATING
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
TORNADO.

..MEAD/SMITH.. 12/28/2013

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