DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030546
SWODY1
SPC AC 030543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST MON DEC 02 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE WRN
HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLIFICATION OF THIS TROUGH
WILL OCCUR AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIGS SWD AND SEWD FROM
THE CA COAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND VICINITY...WHILE A
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX EJECTS ENEWD AWAY FROM THE WRN IMPULSE ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EJECTION
OF THE VORT MAX...A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE WILL TAKE A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED TRAJECTORY FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL AID IN THE EWD/SEWD ACCELERATION OF AN ARCTIC FRONT OVER A
BROAD EXPANSE OF THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...WHILE
THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT ADVANCES SWD ALONG AND W OF THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY RISE OVER THE ERN CONUS
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFYING WRN-CONUS TROUGH AND ON THE HEELS OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING THE E COAST.

MULTIPLE FOCI FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE
CORRIDOR FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES NEWD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...POOR PHASING BETWEEN
THESE ASCENT FOCI AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION/LIGHTNING PRECLUDE GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF WEAKLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE WILL
SLOWLY STREAM POLEWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POCKETS OF MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND PEAK HEATING FROM THE CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES NWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE GROWTH OWING TO LIMITED ASCENT. ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS AL/GA AND
VICINITY...WHERE BROAD LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY BE MODESTLY
AUGMENTED WITHIN THE TERMINI OF DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL JET MAXIMA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...AND
VERY SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE MITIGATED BY /1/ POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND /2/ MEAGER SFC CONVERGENCE
AMIDST CAPE ONLY EXTENDING MARGINALLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT.
THUS...GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT
THIS TIME.

..COHEN/GOSS.. 12/03/2013

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