DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281236
SWODY1
SPC AC 281233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2013

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NE GULF COAST AND SE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT...
AN INITIALLY SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX WILL ACCELERATE
ENEWD TO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD TO THE
SC PIEDMONT BY 29/12Z BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MEANWHILE...A MODIFYING AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE INCIPIENT CYCLONE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S IN CENTRAL FL AND THE NE GULF...TO NEAR 70 ACROSS
EXTREME S FL AND THE SE GULF. THIS MOISTENING AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
NWD ACROSS FL TO SE GA AND COASTAL SC BY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS IS TYPICAL OF WINTER SCENARIOS ACROSS THE SE STATES...MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE RATHER POOR...WHICH WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY.
STILL...THERE WILL BE A ZONE WITH SOME POTENTIAL OVERLAP OF STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AND NEAR-SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...WHERE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA. THUS...THERE WILL BE
A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
HOWEVER...THESE RISKS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE LIKELY PERSISTENCE OF
A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER RELATED TO RAIN FALLING INTO THE CP AIR
MASS NOW PRESENT OVER THE SE STATES.

..THOMPSON/DEAN.. 12/28/2013

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