DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121257
SWODY1
SPC AC 121254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...AZ/NM...
THE MASS FIELD ADJUSTMENT TO MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS PRECEDING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SSEWD OVER THE E-PACIFIC WATERS
OFF THE WA/ORE COAST WILL FAVOR EWD-EJECTION OF A CYCLONE CENTERED
ALONG THE SRN CA COAST. AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES EWD AND DEVOLVES
INTO AN OPEN-WAVE TROUGH...IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SUBTROPICAL MOIST
PLUME/WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE S-CNTRL CONUS
FROM THE SW/WSW. IN TURN...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CURL AROUND THE
NERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AMIDST MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT AN ARC OF WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF AZ. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO NM THROUGH THE EVENING IN TANDEM WITH
THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEVOLVING CYCLONE. VERY SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE CONVECTION...THOUGH RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY-LAYER
THETA-E/MEAGER BUOYANCY SHOULD LARGELY MITIGATE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND
PRECLUDE ANY SVR POTENTIAL.

...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A REMNANT STALLED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY FOSTER ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE BOUNDARY IS
OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALONG WITH WEAK ASCENT SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

...EAST ENDS OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT
INLAND AREAS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL INTENSIFY IN THE WAKE OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT WHILE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC KINEMATIC FIELDS SUPPORT LONG
FETCH LENGTHS OVER THE LAKES. DESPITE THE ENSUING ENHANCEMENT TO
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYERS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...THE
LAKE-OVERLYING AIR MASS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO PREVENT ANY
APPRECIABLE SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER CONTENT WITHIN CLOUDS. THIS
WILL LIMIT CHARGE SEPARATION PROCESSES AND ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 12/12/2013

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