DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021253
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST MON DEC 02 2013

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...LARGE SWATH OF WNWLY TO BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW
IS FCST TO COVER MOST OF CONUS...AHEAD OF STG SHORTWAVE LOW/TROUGH
DIGGING INTO NWRN STATES. MID-UPPER LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC -- SHOULD MOVE ESEWD TO ERN MT BY
3/12Z...WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WSWWD ACROSS SRN ORE.
IN RESPONSE...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BACK ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL
CONUS...BECOMING MORE WLY WITH TIME THROUGHOUT PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...SRN-STREAM PERTURBATION NOW OVER GA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SRN ATLC COAST EARLY IN DAY-1.

AT SFC...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NOW ANALYZED OVER NRN/ERN MT IS
EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO STG LEE-SIDE/FRONTAL-WAVE CYCLONE
THROUGH TODAY...AS UPPER WAVE APCHS. RESULTING LOW SHOULD BECOME
BETTER DEFINED OVER SERN MT/NERN WY AREA AROUND 00Z...MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN/SRN SD THROUGH 12Z. REGIME OF LOW-LEVEL COLD
FRONTOGENESIS...NOW SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS INTERIOR PAC NW
AND NRN ROCKIES...WILL RESULT IN STG COLD FRONT TRAILING WSWWD FROM
AFOREMENTIONED LOW. BY END OF PERIOD...FRONT SHOULD REACH NWRN
NEB...SERN WY...AND NRN GREAT BASIN.

...NRN ROCKIES...
STG COOLING/DCVA ALOFT WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO PROMOTE
CONVECTION OVER THIS REGION...DESPITE LOW SFC THETAE AND LACK OF
MORE ROBUST MOISTURE. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED
MUCAPE AROUND 100-200 J/KG WHERE LEADING EDGE OF COLD-CORE REGIME
OVERLAPS LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. MEAGER BUOYANCY
POTENTIALLY MAY REACH JUST INTO THERMAL LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG
GENERATION. THEREFORE...VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. HOWEVER...EXPECTED COVERAGE AND DURATION APPEAR TOO SCANT ATTM
TO WARRANT GEN TSTM AREA.

OTHERWISE...ATMOSPHERE OVER CONUS WILL REMAIN TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE
TO SUPPORT TSTMS.

..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 12/02/2013

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