DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011619
SWODY1
SPC AC 011617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST SUN DEC 01 2013

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW-AMPLITUDE...W TO WNWLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH EARLY MON...DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEP/ELONGATING UPR LOW TRACKING
SE ALONG THE BC CST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...REMNANT OF PREVIOUS SPLIT-FLOW REGIME...SHOULD CONTINUE
ESE ACROSS THE SRN PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT...AND ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
CST STATES EARLY MON. WEAK WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/POSSIBLE TSTMS LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY.

...ARKLATEX/LWR MS VLY LATE TNGT/EARLY MON...
SFC/RAOB AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN PROGRESS
ATTM OVER E TX AND THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...ON SW FRINGE OF RESIDUAL
CP SFC RIDGE ALONG THE E CST. WHILE THE DATA DO NOT SUGGEST THAT AN
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LWR MS VLY TNGT/EARLY MON...COMBINATION OF EVEN MODEST
MOISTENING WITH PERSISTENT WAA/DCVA AHEAD OF FOUR CORNERS IMPULSE
MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD PATCHES OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BY
EARLY TNGT OVER ERN OK/NE TX/SW AR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO PRODUCE THUNDER AS THE AREA OF ASCENT
CONTINUES EWD AND FURTHER WEAKENS EXISTING 700 MB-BASED CIN LAYER
OVER PARTS OF AR/NRN LA AND MS LATER TNGT/EARLY MON.

..CORFIDI/CARBIN.. 12/01/2013

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