ACUS02 KWNS 020631
SWODY2
SPC AC 020629
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CST MON DEC 02 2013
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
PREDICTABILITY ISSUES CONTINUE WITH DICHOTOMOUS DEPICTIONS BETWEEN
GFS/NAM AND NON-NCEP GUIDANCE OVER THE EVOLUTION OF LEAD IMPULSE
EJECTING DOWNSTREAM OF AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WEST.
EVEN WITH WPC/SPC PREFERENCE FOR THE MORE CONSISTENT NON-NCEP
SIMULATIONS...A PREDOMINANTLY SWLY FLOW REGIME AT 850 MB SHOULD
EXIST FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OH/MID-MS VALLEYS. GIVEN
BELOW-NORMAL PW VALUES CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF AND
CARIBBEAN...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED WITH MINIMAL
IF ANY BUOYANCY. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORM LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME...PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS STILL APPEAR
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
..GRAMS.. 12/02/2013
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