DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 030635
SWODY2
SPC AC 030633

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CST TUE DEC 03 2013

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAIN...NCEP GUIDANCE HAS FINALLY TRENDED
TOWARD FAVORED NON-NCEP GUIDANCE LEADING TO INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A WRN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD TOWARDS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS FROM PARTS OF THE
CORN BELT TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SEWD...LIKELY STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH CNTRL TX
EARLY THU.

...LOWER OH VALLEY TO ARKLATEX...
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED WED NIGHT
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IMPINGES ON A MARGINAL WARM SECTOR.
DESPITE THE LACK OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN...60S SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY REACHING AS FAR N AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS MODIFICATION
OCCURS BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION GIVEN PREDOMINATELY SWLY WINDS
FROM 850-700 MB. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER WITH MUCAPE HOLDING
AOB 500 J/KG...OWING TO MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ADVECTION
OF A MOISTURE PLUME CURRENTLY OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. GIVEN
THE POSITIVE-TILT NATURE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH...POOR HIGH-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY INHIBIT CHARGE SEPARATION AND YIELD ONLY SPORADIC
TSTMS WITHIN AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE UNDERCUTTING FRONT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
ADEQUATE...THE THERMODYNAMIC AND PATTERN SETUP DOES NOT WARRANT
SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 12/03/2013

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