ACUS02 KWNS 040632
SWODY2
SPC AC 040630
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CST WED DEC 04 2013
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PROGRESSES NEWD
TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A WEAKER IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE INVOF LK SUPERIOR AT 12Z/THU WILL RAPIDLY
PROGRESS N/NEWD...WITH TRAILING PORTION OF A STOUT COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD AND REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC TO WRN GULF COAST BY
EARLY FRI.
...SABINE TO TN VALLEYS...
REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ANOTHER DAY OF
CONTINUED WARM SECTOR MODIFICATION SHOULD YIELD INCREASING BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS BENEATH A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. ALTHOUGH 850-500
MB LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...MLCAPE MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG
THU AFTERNOON WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN NEAR-NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT CHANGE AND THE LACK OF
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT BEYOND THE FRONT...CONFIDENCE IN
OPEN WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW. THE MORE PROBABLE
SCENARIO IS FOR STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE/WAA TO AID IN CONVECTION
FORMING IMMEDIATELY ALONG/BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BUT WITH DEEP-LAYER
WINDS GENERALLY PARALLELING AND INTENSE MID-LEVEL FLOW LAGGING THE
FRONT...CONVECTION MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME GREATLY ORGANIZED PRIOR TO
BEING UNDERCUT. STILL...SUFFICIENT LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST
FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
IF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WERE TO BE SUSTAINED.
..GRAMS.. 12/04/2013
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