ACUS03 KWNS 120810
SWODY3
SPC AC 120808
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CST THU DEC 12 2013
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST...
NRN BAJA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SWRN
U.S. INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY 13/12Z. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN
EJECT TOWARD THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE DIGS
TOWARD LA/MS LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE LEAD SHORT-WAVE WILL
ENCOURAGE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FOR MOISTURE TO
RETURN INLAND...MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK LAPSE
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT BUOYANCY ACROSS THE ERN GULF COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOTABLY MORE
UNSTABLE THAN THE GFS ACROSS THIS REGION PRIMARILY DUE TO HIGHER SFC
MOISTURE CONTENT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW FAR INLAND MEANINGFUL DEW POINTS WILL ADVANCE AND
FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SEVERE PROBS LESS THAN 5
PERCENT. IF DEW POINTS MANAGE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...AS INDICATED BY THE NAM...THEN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY
RESIDE ACROSS SRN MS/FL PANHANDLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT-WAVE.
..DARROW.. 12/12/2013
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