DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 170815
SWODY3
SPC AC 170813

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2013

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A POTENT UPPER LOW SSEWD
ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA
BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDING EWD TO THE
E COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIE
ROUGHLY FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO IL THUR AFTERNOON...THEN SETTLING
INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. S OF THIS
FRONT...SLY WINDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WITH 50S F DEWPOINTS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS
THE TX COAST.

...ERN TX INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE A PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS SERN
TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN
LACK OF APPRECIABLE LIFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DESPITE A
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET...MOST OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE
DISJOINTED FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS. A FEW MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME
TYPE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS BUT MOST LIKELY THE
RESULT OF A SHALLOW/SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER.

..JEWELL.. 12/17/2013

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