DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 040801
SWODY3
SPC AC 040759

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 AM CST WED DEC 04 2013

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS EARLY FRI WILL
RAPIDLY EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL DIG ALONG THE W COAST...EFFECTIVELY MAINTAINING A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS. POLAR COLD FRONT SHOULD
SLOW/STALL FOR A TIME FRI MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD
IMPULSE...BEFORE ACCELERATING EWD DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

...PARTS OF THE DEEP SOUTH...
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER THE PLAINS AND
SLOW COLD FRONT MOVEMENT SHOULD YIELD A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE RISK
OF ORGANIZED STORMS PEAKING AROUND MIDDAY. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT
THAT LOW-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN BRIEFLY FRI MORNING ACROSS A
PLUME OF 65-70 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS. DESPITE MARGINAL MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD A CONFINED
CORRIDOR OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY. IT APPEARS PLAUSIBLE THAT A
FEW STORMS COULD FORM WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PORTION OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE AND ROTATE GIVEN AT LEAST 30-40 KT 850 MB WINDS.
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND VEER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT SHOULD PINCH
OFF THE RICHEST PLUME OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE RELATIVELY
LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO RISK SUGGESTS
LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE WARRANTED ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 12/04/2013

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