DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 090947
SWOD48
SPC AC 090947

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0347 AM CST MON DEC 09 2013

VALID 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH VACATING THE ERN U.S. DAY 4 /THU. 12-12/ IS
PROGGED TO LEAVE LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE U.S.
FOR DAY 5. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE TROUGHS MOVE
ACROSS THE U.S. THROUGH THIS LOWER AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD...THAT
GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF MEAN TROUGHING IS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7.
HOWEVER...BEYOND DAY 5 MODELS DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
HANDLING OF THE SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW FIELD
-- AND THUS LIKEWISE WITH THE ASSOCIATED EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
PATTERN.

THAT BEING SAID...ANY ONSHORE CYCLOGENESIS WHICH MAY OCCUR E OF THE
ROCKIES IS DEPICTED AS BEING RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS VARIOUS MODEL
RUNS...WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANY APPRECIABLE WARM SECTOR
DESTABILIZATION. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 12/09/2013

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