MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2056

ACUS11 KWNS 051308
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051307
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-051700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2056
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0707 AM CST THU DEC 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 051307Z - 051700Z

SUMMARY...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING INTO MIDDAY OVER ERN
OK...NRN AR...AND SRN MO.

DISCUSSION...SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WRN KY INTO ERN TX AT
12Z...WITH FRONT SLOPING NWWD WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION.
SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A PRONOUNCED ZONE OF LOW TO
MIDLEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS ERN OK...NRN
AR...AND SRN MO THROUGH MIDDAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION
WILL AID IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
MORNING. SURFACE AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT DRY...AS WELL AS WARM OVER
PORTIONS OF NRN AR...ATTM. HOWEVER...INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL AID IN WET BULB COOLING/MOISTENING...WITH RESULTANT
SUB-FREEZING/SATURATING SURFACE AIRMASS RESIDING BENEATH A WARM NOSE
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER LEADING TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LIQUID
RATES AOA 0.03 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION /REF 12Z
SGF AND LZK RAOBS/.

..GARNER.. 12/05/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 37128958 36429023 35559168 34549406 34409542 34799607
35479598 36639469 37529281 38039124 37919001 37128958

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.