MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2078

ACUS11 KWNS 140531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140531
ILZ000-MOZ000-141030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 140531Z - 141030Z

SUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES UP TO
1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SAT FROM PARTS OF SW MO ENE THROUGH THE MO OZARKS TO E CNTRL MO/W
CNTRL IL.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH SRN
PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ATTM OVER NE OK AS THE
TROUGH TEMPORARILY ASSUMES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT BEFORE IT BECOMES
ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY LATER SAT.

ASCENT AND MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE VORT SHOULD ELIMINATE DEEP WARM
LAYER OVER THE REGION SHOWN BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING...WITH COOLING
LIKELY BEING SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE EXISTING PRECIPITATION TO
SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VORT. ENEWD ADVANCE OF THE VORT SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN EXISTING
DIFFUSE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENE THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN
MO...THEREBY ENHANCING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/UPLIFT.

COMBINATION OF FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN AN AMPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY
YIELD A NARROW SWATH OR TWO OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH
RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE VORT REACHES THE MS RVR
TOWARD 12Z SAT. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION /LIKELY BASED NEAR 700 MB/
MAY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 12/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON 37299062 36759195 36639390 37239384 37929318 38609200
39189062 39158939 38128937 37299062

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.