ACUS11 KWNS 211358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211357
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-211500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E TX...WRN/NRN LA...AND SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211357Z - 211500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED BY 15-17Z FOR PARTS
OF EAST TX INTO WRN/NRN LA AND SRN AR.
DISCUSSION...LIGHTNING TRENDS THROUGH 1330Z SHOWED TSTMS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP FROM NERN TX /NEAR THE COLD FRONT/ AND SSWWD ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE TO 45 NNE KVCT. THIS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS LIKELY OCCURRING AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP LAYER
ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NEWD FROM CENTRAL TX. ENVIRONMENT
ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS SUFFICIENTLY
SHEARED TO RESULT IN ORGANIZED STORMS...GIVEN 50-60 KT SLY LLJ.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ASCENT TO SUPPORT STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT. AS THIS
ASCENT MAKES NEWD ADVANCEMENT...SUSTENANCE OF UPDRAFTS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME GREATER ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 15-17Z.
..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 12/21/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 33229389 33719311 33969262 33899213 33579125 33119141
31619212 29589289 28639600 29079670 31739514 32419461
32749433 33229389
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment