MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2114

ACUS11 KWNS 231339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231338
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-231745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CST MON DEC 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NERN MA...SRN AND ERN NH...AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN ME

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 231338Z - 231745Z

SUMMARY...FREEZING RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
0.02-0.04 INCH PER HOUR BETWEEN 14-16Z...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN MA
AND SRN/ERN NH. RATES COULD REACH VALUES EXCEEDING 0.05-0.1 INCH
PER HR AFTER 15Z...WITH FREEZING RAIN BECOMING RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND
NERN MA AFTER 18Z AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE 32 F. FREEZING
RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM W-E ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL ME BETWEEN 14-18Z
WITH RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 0.05-0.1 INCH PER HOUR BY 17-18Z.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER SRN TO DOWNEAST MAINE /INLAND FROM THE COAST/. THIS LATTER
THREAT AREA SHOULD PERSIST BEYOND 18Z.

DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS ME TO SRN NH AND NERN MA...WITH THE COLDEST
VALUES IN THE DISCUSSION AREA RESIDING IN ME /GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 20S F CENTRAL ME TO UPPER 20S-30 F ALONG THE COAST/. A
CONTINUATION OF E/NELY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS ME AND NLY ACROSS SRN NH
INTO NERN MA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THESE COLD TEMPERATURES.
ALTHOUGH THE WARM NOSE LOCATED ATOP THIS SUB-FREEZING AIR MASS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING SOME ACROSS SWRN ME PER COMPARISON OF 00Z...06Z...AND
12Z SOUNDINGS AT GYX...A SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE REMAINS THIS MORNING
/+9 C AT 900 MB/. THIS VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE COMBINED WITH A
STREAM OF MOISTURE /PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH /SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN
NEW ENGLAND TO ME TODAY WILL RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN AS THE PRIMARY
P-TYPE.

MEANWHILE...A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG OR NEAR THE SRN
NEW ENGLAND COAST AROUND 18Z SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OVER NERN MA
SHOULD SHIFT TO ELY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE 32 F BY 18Z.
THIS WOULD END THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA.

..PETERS.. 12/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...

LAT...LON 45746770 45016708 44856718 44586774 44446840 44236894
43736983 43277044 42497104 42287121 42227154 42337184
42837197 43207195 43537171 43847116 44877099 45316979
45896871 45746770

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