DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Amend 1

ACUS01 KWNS 220001
SWODY1
SPC AC 212358

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

VALID 212355Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

AMENDED TO ADD A GENERAL TSTM AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NC AND
SOUTHEAST VA

...ERN NORTH CAROLINA/SERN VA...
A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
SYNOPTIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC/SC AT 23Z. COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NC/VA/MD AND DELMARVA
REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A N-S BAND OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN 80
KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET...WHERE COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UVVS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THIS CONVECTION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...WSR-88D VWP DATA AT ILM/MHX SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN NC. THIS IS
ATTENDANT TO THE NRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE SC/GA COAST...AND THE SURFACE LOW /LOCATED N
OF ILM/. ALTHOUGH TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS GREATER ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF SC/GA WHERE IT IS ENCOUNTERING THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER /0.5
TO 0.7 INCHES/ HAS OCCURRED OVER ERN NC PER GPS SATELLITE DATA.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER INLAND AREAS OF
ERN NC/SERN VA THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN PW
AND STRONGER DYNAMICS/ASCENT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD WILL SUPPORT A PROBABILITY OF TSTMS AT OR ABOVE 10
PERCENT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALSO WWD OF THE SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WHERE WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

..PETERS.. 01/21/2014

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