DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220056
SWODY1
SPC AC 220054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN NC/SERN VA...
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF TSTMS WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST OFFSHORE OF THE
SRN AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS /INVOF THE GULF STREAM/ AND SPREAD EWD
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...TSTM PROBABILITY AT OR ABOVE 10 PERCENT IS
EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS OF ERN NC TO SERN VA. SEE THE AMENDED
20Z OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS ABOUT THIS INLAND
TSTM POTENTIAL...PRIMARILY OCCURRING THROUGH 06Z.

.AMENDED 20Z OUTLOOK... /ISSUED 558 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014/

...ERN NORTH CAROLINA/SERN VA...
A DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE ERN U.S.
SYNOPTIC TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC/SC AT 23Z. COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /-28 TO -34 C AT 500 MB/ ATTENDANT TO THIS
SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NC/VA/MD AND DELMARVA
REGION THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A N-S BAND OF COOLING CLOUD
TOPS OVER CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN 80
KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET...WHERE COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING UVVS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THIS CONVECTION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...WSR-88D VWP DATA AT ILM/MHX SHOWED A CORRIDOR OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS FAR ERN NC. THIS IS
ATTENDANT TO THE NRN EXTENT OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS ALREADY
MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE SC/GA COAST...AND THE SURFACE LOW /LOCATED N
OF ILM/. ALTHOUGH TSTM DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE IS GREATER ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE OF SC/GA WHERE IT IS ENCOUNTERING THE WARMER
WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER /0.5
TO 0.7 INCHES/ HAS OCCURRED OVER ERN NC PER GPS SATELLITE DATA.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK OVER INLAND AREAS OF
ERN NC/SERN VA THROUGH TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASE IN PW
AND STRONGER DYNAMICS/ASCENT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SPREADING EWD WILL SUPPORT A PROBABILITY OF TSTMS AT OR ABOVE 10
PERCENT. THIS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ALONG AND E OF THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ALSO WWD OF THE SURFACE LOW...COINCIDENT WITH
THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...WHERE WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

..PETERS.. 01/22/2014

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