DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 090044
SWODY1
SPC AC 090042

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NERN TX...SERN OK...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR REGION...

SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER AR THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION AND A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM SHREVEPORT
AND LITTLE ROCK SHOW VERY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE LAYERS BETWEEN 850-700
MB AND 700-500 MB BELOW WEAK CAPPING INVERSIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE TOO WARM AND INSTABILITY IS TOO WEAK FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR IN WAKE
OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ WILL
PERSIST ACROSS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF AN
UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SRN
PLAINS VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND THIS MAY HELP TO FURTHER ERODE THE
CAPPING INVERSION AND DEEPEN THE ELEVATED CONVECTIVE LAYER
SUFFICIENTLY FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.

..DIAL.. 01/09/2014

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