DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 310044
SWODY1
SPC AC 310041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 PM CST THU JAN 30 2014

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH FL...

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN GULF BASIN NORTH OF
STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. AN
EXPANSIVE REGION OF SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED AHEAD OF
PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD NOT MIGRATE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. SCT TSTMS HAVE BEEN NOTED
OFF AND ON ALONG THE SFC FRONT OVER THE STRAITS WHERE MORE
SIGNIFICANT/DEEPER BUOYANCY RESIDES. LATEST THINKING IS DEEP
CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR
THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH KEY AND MFL EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND FOR
THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN GENERAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA.

..DARROW.. 01/31/2014

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