DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101944
SWODY1
SPC AC 101942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...N TX/S CENTRAL OK...
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE HEATING AS CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CLEARING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK
TO WRN NORTH TX. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RISING INTO
THE 60S ACROSS THESE AREAS BENEATH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPE 300-500 J PER KG/ THUS FAR.
OTHER THAN SHIFTING THE GENERAL TSTM LINE EWD A LITTLE ACROSS N
TX...CENTRAL-NERN OK AND SWRN MO PER CURRENT POSITION OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

...FAR NERN MO/ERN IA/NRN IL TO SRN IND/OH...
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THIS REGION AHEAD OF DEVELOPING PLAINS TROUGH...
AND FORCING FOR ASCENT/STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A LEAD
IMPULSE APPROACHING THE MID MS VALLEY AND ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL WAA
ALONG A SWLY LLJ SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED TSTMS TO SPREAD FARTHER NWD
REACHING ERN IA AND NRN IL YET THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED
THE GENERAL TSTM AREA NWD. MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER SRN IND/SWRN OH SHOULD
BE MINIMAL...AND HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY REMOVED THE GENERAL TSTM
POTENTIAL FROM MUCH OF THESE LATTER STATES.

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
NO CHANGES REQUIRED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

..PETERS.. 01/10/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A LARGELY PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME...A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EWD
TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MIDLEVEL WAVE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN S CENTRAL KS...AND THIS LOW
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WHILE MOVING NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY
11/12Z. MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING IN TWO PRIMARY
CORRIDORS...ONE INTO TX AND THE OTHER INTO FL. THE RICHEST
MOISTURE/HIGHEST PW IS OVERSPREADING FL WHERE SOME SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST.
MEANWHILE...A SWATH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ONGOING FROM NE TX TO
MO IN A ZONE OF MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL WAA...ALONG THE AXIS OF A 40-50
KT LLJ. THIS ZONE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS IT
SPREADS EWD INTO TONIGHT...AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN ELEVATED BASED ON THE FEED OF RICHEST MOISTURE/BUOYANCY
CONFINED FARTHER TO THE SW IN TX.

...N TX/S CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING...
THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS S
CENTRAL OK AND N TX AS MID-HIGH CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W-E ABOVE THE W
EDGE OF THE SURFACE MOIST SECTOR. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
IN OK TO NEAR 70 IN N TX WITH DEWPOINTS OF 54-60F WILL SUPPORT
MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG AND MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BAND
OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH CAPE WILL NOT BE
LARGE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM AND COOL MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /NEAR -20 C AT 500 MB/ COULD SUPPORT A MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING AS STORMS ORGANIZE INTO A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONT IN
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY WIND PROFILES.

...N CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL OCCUR ACROSS LA AND SRN MS/AL THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY...WITH AN ATTENDANT INCREASE IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SW OF THE STRONGER WAA ZONE AND
RESULTANT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES...SUCH THAT THERE WILL
ONLY BE A NARROW OVERLAP NEAR OR JUST N OF I-10...WHERE EMBEDDED
ROTATION STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY. EVEN HERE...THE
INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS COULD TEMPER THE INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE MARINE AIR MASS.

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