DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
FROM PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN FL TO THE SRN AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED...PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM
COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ATTENDANT TO THE EWD
MOVEMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON SATURDAY...AND BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS IT REACHES THE ERN SEABOARD.
THIS PROCESS WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
FROM THE CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION NWD ACROSS THE ERN STATES.
A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS
IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO QUEBEC...WHILE A
TRAILING COLD FRONT STEADILY ADVANCES EWD REACHING ERN NY TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH ERN NC TO NRN FL BY 12/00Z. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD SATURDAY NIGHT.

...SRN-MID ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO NRN FL AND FL PANHANDLE...
ELY SURFACE TRAJECTORIES OVER THE ERN GULF TO OFF THE SRN-MID
ATLANTIC STATES WILL VEER TO SLY DURING DAY 1 ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE
RETURN/MOISTENING. THIS PROCESS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5+
INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE PRE-COLD FRONT WARM SECTOR INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS MOISTENING...MODEST LAPSE RATES
/700-500 MB RATES AROUND 6.5 C PER KM/ AND LIMITED SURFACE HEATING
DUE TO CLOUDINESS WILL HAMPER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE...AT
BEST...FROM 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.

THE STRONG DYNAMICS ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
/500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 60-120 METERS ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON/ WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINEAR FORCING...WITH
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS /4 KM NSSL AND NMM/ SUGGESTING A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS ALSO
SHOW THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO REMAIN MAINLY OFFSHORE
OF THE SRN-MID ATLANTIC WHERE WATERS ARE WARMER...THOUGH AT LEAST
ONE PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND COULD SUPPORT SEMI-DISCRETE TO
DISCRETE STORMS OVER THE ERN CAROLINAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.

THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
COMBINED WITH FAST STORM MOVEMENTS WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR SOME
DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO
RISK...MAINLY WITH THE DISCRETE AND/OR SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 01/10/2014

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