DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 081726
SWODY2
SPC AC 081724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING DAY 1 IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE. THIS TRANSITION WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY DEVELOPING
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN STATES...AND TWO AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EXTENDING INTO NRN MEXICO
AND THE SECOND OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES. SRN HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE SRN PLAINS
WITH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS.

...PART OF THE TX COAST TO THE ARKLATEX...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER OK/N
TX AT 09/12Z...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ENE
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT AIR
MASS MODIFICATION /LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA BENEATH WEAK
MIDLEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH/ WILL HAVE
OCCURRED LEADING INTO THE START OF DAY 2 FOR A CATEGORICAL TSTM
OUTLOOK AREA. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /SOME ELEVATED AND A
FEW SURFACE BASED/ SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING. THIS THREAT WILL
THEN DECREASE GREATLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
RISES/WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND CHARGE SEPARATION.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
PRONOUNCED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2 AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN FROM DEEP S TX THROUGH OK AND SRN KS IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE AMPLIFYING FOUR CORNERS/NRN MEXICO TROUGH. PW
VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1 INCH OVER N TX AND SRN OK LATE THU
EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
ASCENT /LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY BETWEEN 10/06-12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK.

...SOUTH FL VICINITY...
WEAK RIDGING AND A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING DAY 2...WHILE AIR MASS MOISTENING
CONTINUES ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME
BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION SHOULD
TEND TO BE LIMITED INLAND...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL AND THIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH AN
EXPANSION IN THE GENERAL TSTM AREA. MEANWHILE...SOME LIFT/
INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTH FL AND/OR IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.

..PETERS.. 01/08/2014

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