DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091733
SWODY2
SPC AC 091731

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE CONUS AT THE START OF DAY 2...AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRACKS NEWD FROM THE BASE OF A ROCKIES/PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL CONCURRENTLY
TRACK NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO VALLEY...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE
ROCKIES/PLAINS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 2 WITH AN EWD
SHIFT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A PORTION OF A MIDLEVEL WAVE...NOW OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND ACCOMPANYING STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL JETS
DIG SEWD REACHING PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX/OZARKS
REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...AMPLIFICATION OF THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS
FROM OK/TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. A COLD
FRONT TRAILING FROM THE NEWD MOVING SURFACE LOW WILL ACCELERATE
E-SEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
WHILE THE NRN EXTENT REACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z
SATURDAY.

...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST TX FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT...AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUING FROM LATE DAY 1 ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND SPREADING INTO THE OZARKS FRIDAY MORNING. ON THE SRN
FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE AIR MASS WILL UNDERGO
FURTHER GRADUAL MOISTENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF
EAST TX.

ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EXTENSIVENESS/IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION/
CLOUDINESS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...INDICATIONS PERSIST THAT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD MODESTLY DESTABILIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT...WITH MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TO EAST TX. THIS COULD PROVE
FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS. DESPITE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION...MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO AT LEAST A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. THIS RISK
COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS...A BRIEF TORNADO...AND SEVERE HAIL
PENDING A SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE /NON-LINEAR/ CONVECTIVE MODE. THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK REMAINS MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST TX....THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT
THE SEVERE RISK COULD REACH FARTHER E TOWARD THE NWRN LA
BORDER...THUS THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE
E.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRI NIGHT...
INLAND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ABATE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM SECTOR DEVELOPING INLAND. HOWEVER...NWD/
INLAND PENETRATION OF WARM SECTOR SUFFICIENT FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION/TSTMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS FACTOR IS CLOSELY TIED TO
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/CLOUDINESS OVER INLAND AREAS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NWD ATOP A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /WITHIN 75-100 MILES OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO/...WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG POSSIBLE. THE UNCERTAINTY
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND WITH STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THIS REGION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER
COVERAGE AND ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN LOW. DESPITE
THIS LOW POTENTIAL FOR COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...A
CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED THREAT PERSISTS FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A
TORNADO RISK FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS EXPECTED
STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH WOULD
SUPPORT THESE THREATS.

..PETERS.. 01/09/2014

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