MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0011

ACUS11 KWNS 090103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090102
ARZ000-090600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST WED JAN 08 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN AR

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 090102Z - 090600Z

SUMMARY...SCATTERED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RATES OF 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A PLAN-VIEW DEPICTION OF 1.5-KM-AGL FLOW INDICATES A
SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NERN TX INTO WRN AR...SUPPORTING MODEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE ARKLATEX PER MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY IS ENHANCING ASCENT IN THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ.
AMIDST NON-ZERO -- THOUGH VERY LITTLE -- MUCAPE SAMPLED BY THE 00Z
LIT RAOB...THE ASCENT IS ENHANCING REGENERATING SHALLOW CONVECTION
OVER WRN/CNTRL AR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD WHILE THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LLJ STRETCHES ENEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX.

DEEP ASCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF A
BETTER-DEFINED IMPULSE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE TX
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH...SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED
RAOB ALSO SAMPLES A 4-CELSIUS WARM NOSE AROUND 900 MB ABOVE A
SUB-FREEZING SFC-BASED COLD DOME...PROMOTING FREEZING RAIN AS THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. AND...WITH SUB-FREEZING WET BULB SFC
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...AIDED BY
DRY/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
E...FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..COHEN.. 01/09/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON 34959068 34319147 34089280 34169361 34599410 35469416
36169358 36309214 36059046 34959068

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