MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0033

ACUS11 KWNS 220009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220009
VAZ000-NCZ000-MDZ000-220515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0609 PM CST TUE JAN 21 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...DELMARVA PENINSULA...SERN VA...NERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 220009Z - 220515Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SERN VA AND NC THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO PRIMARILY
SNOW ACROSS NERN NC BY 01-02Z. RATES OF 1 INCH PER HR COULD BECOME
COMMON...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SNOWFALL PRIMARILY
ALONG/E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ACROSS SERN VA...WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND RECENTLY INTENSIFYING FROM N OF RIC S-SWWD TO NEAR
AVC...WHILE PRIMARILY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING FARTHER S INTO NC.
MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED NE OF ILM AT 00Z...AND IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS NEWD WHILE SLOWLY DEEPENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION NW OF THE SFC
CYCLONE...ALONG WITH DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
VORT MAX...WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY COOLING SFC TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SRN VA AND NRN NC. THIS WILL OCCUR SIMULTANEOUSLY WITH INCREASING
MIDLEVEL DCVA...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN SNOWFALL RATES.

THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL OCCUR WITHIN SNOWFALL BANDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF VA/NC INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH RATES NEAR
1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...A LAYER OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING THE VORT MAX COULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RATES. THE RELATIVE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE VORT MAX SHOULD NOT YIELD A PARTICULARLY LONG-DURATION
EVENT ACROSS NC/SERN VA...WITH MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY 06Z.

..ROGERS.. 01/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON 37797539 37567552 36857592 36477578 36137575 35767631
35427736 35387810 35657872 35967887 37597759 38087698
37967595 37797539

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