DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020102
SWODY1
SPC AC 020059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST SAT FEB 01 2014

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WEST/NORTH TX TO THE ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH...
BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A PROGRESSIVE/RELATIVELY
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS CROSSING THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY/FAR NORTHWEST MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH
DOWNSTREAM CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW PREVALENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS. SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ARCS ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO CENTRAL TX
EARLY THIS EVENING...WHILE THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED PORTION
OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT TONIGHT.

AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX FURTHER INFLUENCES THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT...CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY TO
INCREASE TOWARD/AFTER 06Z ACROSS PARTS OF WEST/EVENTUALLY NORTH TX.
NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME
SUFFICIENTLY FAVORABLE FOR TSTM POTENTIAL VIA STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES/WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

FARTHER EAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT FOCUSED WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION
TONIGHT /PARTICULARLY AFTER 06Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX/MUCH
OF AR AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT MS RIVER VALLEY. THE 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM LITTLE ROCK FEATURED NEARLY 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE BASED
ABOVE 800 MB...WHICH IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REGIONAL THERMODYNAMIC
CHARACTERISTICS THAT WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME EMBEDDED/ISOLATED TSTM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

..GUYER.. 02/02/2014

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