DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120544
SWODY1
SPC AC 120543

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 PM CST TUE FEB 11 2014

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS EWD ADVANCE ON
WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SERN U.S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK LOW OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF WILL DEEPEN
GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS N FL THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH MORE
PRONOUNCED CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE
OVER THE GULF STREAM. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL FOCUS THE PRIMARY AREA
OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.

...FL...
A LARGE AREA OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING OVER
THE SERN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FARTHER S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT GULF COASTAL AREAS.
WITH TIME...A BROKEN LINE OR LINES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY EVOLVE
ACROSS THE ERN GULF DURING THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FLOW FIELD ALOFT. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD APPROACH WRN FL BY LATE AFTERNOON -- BUT CAPE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED OVER INLAND AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

THAT BEING SAID...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS APPEARS
TO EXIST AS THE STORMS CROSS THE PENINSULA...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE
OF 5% SEVERE RISK. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LARGELY VEER AHEAD
OF THE ENE-WSW FRONT PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE ARRIVAL...SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN BACKED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW AS IT
CROSSES NRN FL. THUS -- A ZONE OF LOW /2%/ TORNADO PROBABILITY IS
ALSO BEING INCLUDED AS A BRIEF SPIN-UP IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

EVENTUALLY...CONVECTION SHOULD VACATE THE FL PENINSULA -- SHIFTING
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
NWD ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND REMAIN OFFSHORE...INLAND SEVERE RISK
OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.

..GOSS.. 02/12/2014

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