ACUS01 KWNS 030058
SWODY1
SPC AC 030055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 PM CST SUN FEB 02 2014
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...EASTERN LA/SOUTHERN MS TO CENTRAL AL...
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
ARKLATEX/OZARKS VICINITY EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THIS FEATURE
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY AS IT REACHES THE TN VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS HAVE AND WILL
REMAIN LARGELY FOCUSED NEAR/NORTHWEST OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT THAT ANGLES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL LA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THAT SAID...A LIMITED POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR A FEW NEAR-SURFACE
BASED TSTMS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT. THIS WILL MAINLY BE
ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL...ESPECIALLY NEAR/JUST EAST OF A
NORTHEAST-TRANSITIONING SURFACE WAVE /ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS ROUGHLY
NEAR MERIDIAN AS OF 00Z/. WEAK CAPE AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN DETRIMENTAL FOR STRONGER CALIBER UPDRAFTS...PARTICULARLY
POST-SUNSET...BUT STRONG SHEAR/AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SRH MAY YET ALLOW FOR
A NON-ZERO WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO POTENTIAL.
...COASTAL CA...
CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CA COAST TONIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK CAPE...AS PER THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM
MIRAMAR CA...WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED LIGHTNING POTENTIAL FOR
NEAR-COASTAL AREAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
..GUYER.. 02/03/2014
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