DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240536
SWODY1
SPC AC 240535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SUN FEB 23 2014

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FL...

DEEP WLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH
THE UPCOMING DAY1 PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE GREATEST BELT OF HIGHER
PW SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE GULF BASIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WHERE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1.25-1.5 INCHES. LATEST WV
IMAGERY/MODEL GUIDANCE DO NOT DEPICT ANY PARTICULARLY SIGNIFICANT
MIDLEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OR IMPULSE THAT SHOULD AFFECT THIS REGION
DURING THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS DIURNAL HEATING AND
SOLENOIDAL CIRCULATIONS WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG EAST
COAST...THOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OUTFLOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY AS WELL.

...RED RIVER REGION INTO NRN MS...

WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SWRN U.S./SRN
ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO LATE IN THE PERIOD AS PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SHALLOW FRONT THAT
SETTLED INTO SCNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AND RETURN
NWD TO A POSITION OVER NCNTRL TX LATE IN THE PERIOD. FLOW WILL BE
DECIDEDLY WLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO PORTIONS OF NRN MS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH ASCENT
WILL BE NOTED ALONG COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB WILL BE WEAKLY INHIBITED
AND SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN
WEAK FORCING IT APPEARS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE.

..DARROW/MARSH.. 02/24/2014

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