DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 250537
SWODY1
SPC AC 250535

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST MON FEB 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE POSITIVE-TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING SWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND SWD INTO NRN MEXICO AND TX AS WELL WITH A
SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
OVERNIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD ACROSS CNTRL
AND SRN TX DURING THE DAY...EXTENDING EWD INTO SRN LA BY 00Z. S OF
THIS FRONT...LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...AND WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE BIG BEND AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TO THE E...STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN
EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN TX INTO
MS.

...BIG BEND REGION IN TX...
WHILE STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT...DEEP SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THAT CAPPING WILL BE AN
ISSUE. MODELS GENERALLY ONLY SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD IN TIME AND SPACE
FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION NEAR THE FRONT. AFTER THIS SHORT WINDOW
PASSES...THE FRONT WILL UNDERCUT THE AREA. CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS SHOW THE BEST THREAT OF STORMS TO BE ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...WITH ONLY RAIN AND WEAK STORMS CROSSING EWD OVERNIGHT.
LESSER INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT AND LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL
JET SUGGEST STORMS WILL NOT BE SEVERE.

...ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
LIFT WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. WHILE THE SURFACE LAYER WILL BE STABLE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AS WELL AS WEAK SWLY FLOW AROUND 850 MB SUGGEST WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. STRONG FORCING MAY HELP COMPENSATE FOR
THE WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH A FEW STRONGER CORES CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE GIVEN FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND COOL TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE LOW.

..JEWELL/COHEN.. 02/25/2014

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