DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 260500
SWODY1
SPC AC 260458

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 PM CST TUE FEB 25 2014

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL AND
ERN U.S...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLANTIC INTO NRN
FL AND THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO BY 00Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS CNTRL/NRN FL.

TO THE W...AN UPPER-LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE CNTRL/NRN CA
AND OREGON COASTS BY EVENING...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING WELL INLAND
OVERNIGHT. COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z BUT ONLY NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
AND POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT DESPITE SOME COOLING.

...CNTRL FL...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SWD ACROSS NRN FL DURING THE DAY AND
INTO CNTRL FL BY EVENING. PRECEDING THE FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL
STEEPEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND CREATE WEAK INSTABILITY OF A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW WITH
MID 60S F DEWPOINTS COMING ASHORE OFF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING
THE EVENING.

THE MOST FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE TIMED AROUND 00Z NEAR
THE FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND AIDED BY
DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH AROUND 40 KT AT 700 MB AND OVER 30 KT AT 850 MB. WITH A
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE...AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...A FEW THIN BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS STORMS TRAVERSE THE
PENINSULA.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 02/26/2014

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