DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261246
SWODY1
SPC AC 261245

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST WED FEB 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY.
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL DOMINATE
THE ERN U.S...MERGING WITH SUBTROPICAL JET ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL
MOVE INTO CNTRL AND NRN CA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD
FRONT.

...NRN/CNTRL FL...

LARGE MCS OVER THE NRN GULF THIS MORNING WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND
AFFECT PORTIONS OF CNTRL FL TODAY. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONGER
CONVECTION WITH BOWING SEGMENTS OVER THE NERN GULF. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER OVER NRN FL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DIABATIC WARMING OVER
CNTRL FL MAY RESULT IN RE-INTENSIFICATION OF CONVECTION ALONG THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. TAMPA 12Z RAOB SHOWS WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ABOVE THE SFC. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION INLAND
FROM THE WRN GULF AND SFC HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST
MARGINAL /300-500 J/KG/ MLCAPE OVER CNTRL FL TODAY. THOUGH INITIALLY
WEAK...WINDS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT. WILL
MAINTAIN A 5% PROBABILITY FOR A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...CNTRL CA AREA...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THIS
FEATURE WILL BE STRONG WITH VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO
PERSIST FOR A WHILE IN POST-FRONTAL ZONE DUE TO THE TERRAIN
CHANNELING EFFECTS. THIS PATTERN WOULD CONDITIONALLY FAVOR SOME
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN THE VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE MOST
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL NOT BE PROPERLY TIMED WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE RESULTING
IN A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WHEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
MAXIMIZED OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL HAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

..DIAL.. 02/26/2014

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