ACUS01 KWNS 040103
SWODY1
SPC AC 040059
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 PM CST MON FEB 03 2014
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AMPLIFICATION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR TONIGHT
OVER THE CONUS...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/POLAR JET OVER FAR NORTHERN MEXICO TO WEST TX.
COLD/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PRECLUDE TSTM POTENTIAL
CONUS-WIDE...WITH A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION SUBSEQUENTLY DETAILED.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARKLATEX...
DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO INFLUENCE THE REGION PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND ONSET OF MODEST
ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AS SHOWERS OTHERWISE DEVELOP/EXPAND
LATE TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COULD BECOME MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES...MAINLY AFTER 09Z ACROSS
AREAS SUCH AS NORTHEAST TX/SOUTHEAST OK. HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THE 00Z OBSERVED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ACROSS TX APPEARS
STRONGER THAN MOST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE PROGS...THE OVERALL SCENARIO
APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT AN INTRODUCTION OF 10 PERCENT
GENERAL TSTM PROBABILITIES.
..GUYER.. 02/04/2014
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