DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041251
SWODY1
SPC AC 041249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE FEB 04 2014

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TODAY...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NW TX THIS MORNING WILL EJECT
QUICKLY NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT...AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS FROM LA THIS AFTERNOON TO SE OH BY 05/12Z.
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ORIGINATING OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THE INLAND
PENETRATION OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED AS A RESULT
OF THE PATH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CYCLOGENESIS DISPLACED WELL
TO THE N-NW...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL WARM SECTOR LATE TODAY ACROSS SRN
LA/MS. EVEN THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE
LOW AND PERHAPS MID 60S...BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR AS A RESULT OF POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SURFACE
HEATING/RESIDUAL COOL AIR. THUS...DESPITE AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR...THE PROSPECTS FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN
THE WARM SECTOR APPEAR LIMITED AT BEST...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE RESIDUAL COOL SURFACE
LAYER AND IMMEDIATELY W OF THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 02/04/2014

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