DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190652
SWODY2
SPC AC 190651

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CST WED FEB 19 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF
OF THE U.S. FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS...AND THE
GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE GULF COAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH INITIALLY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS STATES IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
THEN ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS/UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT AS IT
BEGINS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT.

AT THE SURFACE...A DEEPENING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NNEWD FROM THE
SERN KS VICINITY TO LK SUPERIOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A
STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPS QUICKLY EWD -- CROSSING THE MS
VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS A LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...OH/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEYS ACROSS TN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY DAY 2 -- PRIMARILY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY -- AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED/POWERFUL UPPER STORM
SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE ERN CONUS.

STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD WILL SUPPORT
MODEST DESTABILIZATION /GENERALLY AROUND 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/
ALONG THE FRONT...LEADING TO EVENTUAL INITIATION/EXPANSION OF A
FRONTAL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...A NEARLY
SOLID/FAST-MOVING LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD STRETCH FROM THE SRN
UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITY SSWWD INTO THE CENTRAL/WRN GULF COASTAL
REGION -- ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...GIVEN WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
RAPIDLY/SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...A FEW EMBEDDED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE -- PARTICULARLY WITHIN A ZONE IN
THE MID OH/TN VALLEY VICINITY. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE HAIL RISK HOWEVER...PARTICULARLY N OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED/SEVERE AS THEY MOVE
QUICKLY EWD TOWARD/INTO THE APPALACHIANS -- AFTER WHICH SOME
DISRUPTION OF OVERALL STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK MAY OCCUR.

..GOSS.. 02/19/2014

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