DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 200658
SWODY2
SPC AC 200657

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CST THU FEB 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD...

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/TN VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD IS FORECAST
TO TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME...EVENTUALLY
LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTO ERN
CANADA. UPSTREAM HOWEVER...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SEWD OUT OF
WRN CANADA WILL MAINTAIN THE LARGER-SCALE/LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AFFECTING THE ENTIRE U.S. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...AN INTENSE/OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NWD FROM THE LK SUPERIOR VICINITY ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT INVOF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWD ALONG
THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS PERIOD.

...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWD TO FL...
SEMI-CONTINUOUS BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO LIE JUST E OF
THE APPALACHIAN CREST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...NEAR/JUST AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES QUICKLY EWD TOWARD
THE COAST...THE CONVECTION SHOULD DO LIKEWISE...THOUGH HIGH-RES
MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW A DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION AHEAD
OF THE LINE AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING -- ALREADY WELL N OF THE REGION
-- LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AND ERN CANADA. STILL...STRONG
FLOW ALOFT ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
ERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY...SUPPORTING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNSET...SEVERE RISK WILL END IN ALL AREAS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VERY ISOLATED/LIMITED POTENTIAL LINGERING OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THE STALLING FRONT.

..GOSS.. 02/20/2014

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